Achieving full energy needs with renewable sources is a global aspiration. The 2030 Agenda, driven by the UN, sets as one of the basic Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) the substantial increase in the proportion of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
In fact, there are countries that are almost entirely supplied by clean energy. This is the case of Norway, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Iceland, and Lesotho in Africa. These are countries spread across three different continents and with very different levels of development, which could tempt one to say that ‘where there’s a will, there’s a way’, suggesting that it all depends more on political will than on other factors.
However, a deeper analysis reveals many more nuances. For starters, these are small countries in terms of population (the largest, such as Norway or Costa Rica, do not exceed 5 million inhabitants), and therefore have much more limited energy demand.
The paradoxical example of Norway
Likewise, if we study each particular case, starting with Norway, we see that within an area such as the Nordic countries, which particularly favors renewables, the Scandinavian kingdom stands at the forefront with renewable energy supply levels ranging between 98% and 100%.
This is a remarkable achievement, the result of long-term policies that began in the 1980s, by utilizing water from the Norwegian fjords for hydroelectric power generation. Over time, this has led the country to become Europe’s largest producer and exporter, and to ensure that hydro makes up 96% of its electricity generation mix (the rest being produced from wind, solar, and biomass).
However, Norway balances its commitment to this green energy model to meet domestic consumption needs with the exploitation of its rich hydrocarbon reserves for export, as it holds the largest reserves of both gas and oil in all of Europe. Norway remains a major exporter, a role that has been further strengthened by the Ukraine conflict, as evidenced by the fact that in 2023 it increased its production by more than 6.8%. Norway does not give up the wealth generated by hydrocarbons (which has led its sovereign wealth fund to be the largest in the world, funding energy transition projects), even though it combines their exploitation with domestic consumption through renewables. Here we see a clear limit to the ideal of 100% clean energy supply: the collision with economic needs and the development models of each state.
If this were not the case, it wouldn’t make sense that countries are still searching for hydrocarbon deposits as if they were manna, for example, in projects supported by Norway itself in the North Sea and the Barents Sea. Nor would billions be invested in large projects to exploit new oil or gas reserves discovered long ago, such as the Vaca Muerta field in Argentina.
Uruguay suffers from climate change despite its renewable energy commitment
Uruguay also stands out in the use of renewables, thanks to the exploitation of water resources from its many rivers, allowing the small South American country to achieve that 98% of the energy consumed comes from the clean energy it generates, with a mix comprised of hydraulic plants (56%), wind farms (34%), and, to a lesser extent, photovoltaic and biomass systems.
However, it is worth noting that this does not mean a panacea for avoiding the effects of climate change, as evidenced by the severe drought the country is facing, which is threatening even human water consumption.
Completing the list of countries with the cleanest energy mixes are Iceland thanks to geothermal energy, Costa Rica with a decisive policy since the 1950s to avoid dependence on oil imports and preserve its rich biosphere, as well as Lesotho, a major reference in Africa, supplying itself with 90% renewables, with a strong reliance on hydroelectric power.
But it is important to note again that we are talking about very small countries whose conditions in terms of available natural resources and economic models have facilitated this successful energy transition, though not without problems and contradictions, which are more evident in the case of Norway.
The Energy Transition in Europe
Focusing on Europe, excluding the Nordic countries, Spain stands out for its significant use of renewables, with 17.9% of electricity produced by solar panels and 14.6% by wind turbines.
This has been facilitated by optimal conditions for generating solar and wind energy, the lack of hydrocarbon deposits (although the country has now emerged as a hub for regasification due to international circumstances), and the European Union’s determined initiative to drive the energy model shift, through substantial aid such as the Next Generation EU recovery fund to incentivize self-consumption, both for individuals and businesses.
Additionally, within the energy mix, more stable renewables like solar are gaining more weight compared to wind, which, as we know, comes with environmental and landscape challenges. At the same time, other sources such as green hydrogen are also being explored.
The EU’s push for energy transition as one of the key vectors of post-pandemic Europe has translated into a general increase in the use of wind and solar across the continent, specifically 14% and 12% in 2022.
However, this general picture of a shift towards a greater presence of clean energy in EU countries’ energy mixes has been disrupted by the Ukraine conflict and the subsequent limitations on access to Russian oil, gas, and coal due to the sanctions imposed. This has relaxed the goals of replacing old energy sources in national production, prioritizing the disconnection from Russia without triggering a recession, especially in EU countries like Germany, which were more dependent on Russian gas.
This same issue, along with the renewed focus on concepts like energy self-sufficiency or even sovereignty, has led to a reevaluation of nuclear energy, which forms the backbone of France’s energy supply, with over 19 nuclear power plants operating 56 reactors.
In a previous post, we already analyzed the complexity of classifying this energy source, which combines no emission of pollutants during generation with the creation of manageable but contaminant waste and, most significantly, the potential dangers posed by accidents and disasters, as most recently demonstrated by Chernobyl or Fukushima.
The Evolution of Renewables in the Global Energy Mix
Despite all the uncertainties described, which have global repercussions, it is clear that according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the use of ‘clean sources’ for electricity generation continues to break records, especially in Europe, the United States, and Asia.
Unfortunately, however, this increase in renewables is entirely compatible with a rise in CO2 emissions, according to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Electricity Market Report 2023, due to the simultaneous increase in global energy demand. This means that although the share of clean energy in energy mixes is increasing, since these are percentage and not absolute increases, both phenomena can occur without contradiction.
Nonetheless, it remains good news that it is estimated renewables will account for 35% of the global energy mix in 2025, and that a decrease in CO2 emissions is also expected, although uncertainty remains over achieving the 2030 goals.
In this regard, it’s important to note that major economic giants like the United States, while increasing solar and wind energy production at higher levels than Europe (15% and 13% respectively), as well as significantly reducing coal production (by 11%), have not seen the same decline in natural gas production, which has only fallen by 2.6%. This is due to the affordability of this hydrocarbon through fracking, which is not prohibited as it is in Europe, and the lucrative opportunity to quench Europe’s thirst for gas after sanctions were imposed on Russian sources.
This also explains why the simultaneous growth in hydrocarbon and coal consumption can coexist with the rise of renewables. The enormous energy demand of Asian giants like China and India, which serve as the world’s manufacturing hubs, means their economies are heavily reliant on energy-intensive sectors.
This is perfectly exemplified by the case of India, where wind and solar energy use has grown by 21% and 17%, respectively, alongside a 1.1% increase in coal production. Not to mention the massive importation of cheap Russian oil, which can no longer be sold in other countries due to sanctions.
China is both the largest producer and consumer of energy globally, accounting for up to 5.6% of the world’s energy, and it is expected that its contribution to the global generation mix will increase to 35% by 2025 from the current 29%. In terms of renewable production, China is projected to account for 45% of global growth from 2023 to 2025, followed by the EU with 15%.
In short, we are facing a complex scenario where new players like green hydrogen, innovative technologies such as carbon capture, the outbreak of potential conflicts like the one over Taiwan, and other factors may come into play.
For all these reasons, it is difficult to foresee an increase in the share of renewables in countries’ energy mixes to the point of fully dominating them, especially considering that in a scenario of exponentially increasing energy needs, even 1% of non-renewables could represent a substantial amount. Hence, the desire to find and exploit oil and natural gas deposits persists.